Population Politics by Hanya Kotb

As with every story, civilization in Egypt began when people started settling, leaving behind their nomadic lifestyles. The sedentary society in Egypt started on the banks of the Nile River and its Delta, where the running water helped irrigate the land and sustain agriculture. 

Fast forward 5,000 years, and the importance of that strip of land —narrower than Chile— remains unchanged. Today, over 95% of the population lives on just 5% of the country’s total area. There is simply not enough arable land to sustain the growing population. This is one of the key challenges and concerns facing the current regime, as the population continues to grow rapidly, rising by 2.4% in 2014 and placing immense pressure on limited resources. 

Cairo, the capital, has a population density of over 19,000 people per square kilometre. This has inevitably led to widespread slum living, the spread of disease, chronically congested roads, limited job opportunities for the youthful population, and overcrowded hospitals and schools. These factors have contributed to a decline in the standard of living, with over 60% of the total population living below the poverty line. 

Adding to this suffocating density is the allure of Cairo, and similar cities, as a metropolis believed to be full of opportunity and promise. Rural to urban migration has surged throughout the years, just like most countries after the Industrial Revolution. However, in this case, a correction is needed: the urban population stood at around 24.4 million in 1990, rising to nearly 43.7 million by 2021– a dramatic increase over just a few decades. 

Interestingly, older women have seen the most significant welfare gains from this internal migration, more so than any other demographic group. This trend has been termed the feminisation of migration, as these women increasingly find room to pursue employment —careers, even instead of being confined by traditional roles and expectations that leave no room in standard society and the workforce in small villages. 

With over 8 million internal migrants, Egypt’s cities are under major sustainability pressures. The government has struggled to make meaningful progress in eradicating poverty, malnutrition, inequality, traffic congestion, and the expansion of slums. 

Burdened with international debt, Egyptians experienced a phenomenon in 2024 that would be unimaginable to many reading this today: the introduction of daily power cuts. Initially, two hours on selected days, outages often extended to three hours in response to surging electricity demand during a blistering heat wave. Honestly, if that is not the biggest indicator of economic strain by the population, then I am not sure what is. 

To address overpopulation, President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi launched the Two Is Enough family-planning campaign in 2019. Aimed particularly at rural communities, the campaign

challenged traditional preferences for large families. It proved successful: by 2023, the population growth rate had declined to 1.4%—the lowest it had been in decades. This shift also followed the Arab Spring —and the turbulent Arab Winter— when the country experienced economic decline, regime changes, and social and political unrest, all of which contributed to changing mindsets and holding back on bringing more children to earth-side. 

Now in his eleventh year in power, President El-Sisi has focused much of the government budget and attention on ambitious mega-projects such as the construction of the New Administrative Capital. These initiatives are presented as a way to provide jobs and housing for Egypt’s growing population and, ultimately, to stabilise the economy. However, critics argue that such projects divert financial resources, exacerbate the national debt, and prioritise prestige over practical development for the struggling population— a sort of “let them eat asphalt” regime.

Today, Egypt’s population exceeds 118 million. The country continues to grapple with soaring inflation, limited job opportunities, deteriorating public education and healthcare systems, overcrowded transport, scarce water supplies, crippling national debt, and stalled reforms. 

Still, the recent dip in population growth signals a turning point, and evidence that even the Egyptians themselves have realised they are far too many to prosper within their land. Whether it will lead to long-term demographic balance and meaningful development remains to be seen.